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Monday, October 23, 2006

Comparing China With India by Numbers

1. The Geo-demographics of China and India
Land Area: China 9.6 million sq km; India: 2.97 million sq km
Population: China 1.3 billion; India 1.1 billion
Labor force: China 791.4 million; India 496.4 million
Population growth rate: China 0.59% (death rate 0.697%, birth rate 1.325%); India 1.38% (death rate 0.818%, birth rate 2.201%)

2. Economy in General
GDP in 2005: China US$2.225 trillion; India US$719.8 billion or
China US$8.859 trillion; India US$3.611 trillion by PPP
https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ch.html
https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/in.html

Economy sectors:
China: Agriculture: 15% of GDP, Industry 52% of GDP, Manufacturing 35% of GDP, service 33% In 2001
India: Agriculture: 24% of GDP, Industry 27% of GDP, Manufacturing 16% of GDP, service 48% In 2001
These data comes from World Bank. You can conclude that China's industry size is almost 6 times of India's after a very simple calculation. You can see how little India's industry is. More important, China’s industry is still growing much faster than India’s.

3. Agriculture
India has more arable land than China. Indian produced 250 million tons of grains in 2003 (Thanks for the good weather).
China usually produces 450 million tons of grains each year no matter how tough the weather is (record is more than 500 million tons) (Thanks for the biotech R&D and expansion of the technologies in agricultural filed in China).

India produces 87.6 million tons rice from 42.4 million hectares on the other hand China produces 178 million tons of rice from a mere 29 million hectares. There is only one big difference; China embraced ‘hybrid rice’ technology in a big way, while India has had a slow start.
http://www.indianexpress.com/story/15440.html

In 1980, China grew 4100 kg of rice per hectare; India, 2000. In 2005, China grew 6300 kg, India 3000 kg. The difference in yields had increased from 2100 kg to 3300 kg per hectare. For wheat the comparable figures were 1900 kg versus 1400 kg in 1980; and 4200 kg versus 2700 kg in 2005. For seed cotton, 1700 kg versus 500 kg in 1980; and 3200 kg versus 800 kg in 2005. For vegetables, 14500 kg versus 8300 kg in 1980; and 19300 kg versus 11300 kg in 2005.
http://www.indianexpress.com/story/16111._.html

4. Industry
As data in “Economy in General” section shows, China’s industry scale is 6 times of India’s. China’s industry is still growing at around 16% pace for many years. That means one year increase in China’s industry revenue equals to the total size of India’s industry. The gap is huge.
China’s industry revenue is about 3.5 times of the revenue from agriculture, but for India, its industry revenue is almost equal to the agriculture.
Around 43 million tons of iron and steel was produced in India in 2005 (An important index of infrastructure construction.) China produced around 349 million tons of iron and steel.
http://english.people.com.cn/200610/12/eng20061012_310940.html

55% of the world cement (Another infrastructure construction index) was used in China. See http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=2446908

By the data from CIA fact books, India produced around 36 million tons of oil (A natural resource index) in 2003 and will face the resource problem soon.
China produced 160 million tons of oil in 2003 and imported more than 100 million tons in the same year.

Here talks about the Sino-India trade in 2004. It clearly tells that India is only a raw material supplier to China and China mainly sells industrial products to India.
http://www.indianexpress.com/res/web/pIe/full_story.php?content_id=81415

India’s average tariff fell from 56% in 1990 to 28% in 2004. By comparison, China’s average tariff dropped from 32% to 6% over the same period. That means, India has to use tariff to protect its weak industry. While, China’s industry competes against others fairly even in domestic market.
In 2002 the typical monthly wage of a manufacturing worker in India was US$23.80 while in China the figure was US$110.80, according to the IMF.
http://www.deloitte.com/dtt/cda/doc/content/US_ChinaIndiaReality_Research.pdf
Even India’s industry is under the protection of high tariff. India still has a huge trade deficit. The deficit could reach US$50 billion in the fiscal year of 2005-2006.
http://www.boloji.com/analysis2/0109.htm
But China always has a trade surplus. I even don’t bother to provide the links.

5. Service Industry
Calculating from the GDP numbers of both China and India and the percentage of service industry in them, China’s service industry contributed US$742.5 billion to China’s GDP, it is almost the total of India’s GDP. India’s service revenue was only US$345.5billion.

Chinese airlines carried 138 million passengers in 2005, and the loads will nearly double to 270 million passengers in 5 years.
http://www.usatoday.com/travel/flights/2006-10-02-china-airports-usat_x.htm
Passenger traffic grew to 52.12 million in the last fiscal in India, from 43.47 million in 2004-05, to register a growth of 19.9 percent.
http://investinginindianews.blogspot.com/2006/07/indian-aviation-soaring-into-greater.html

The annual insurance premium currently collected in India is $23 billion, which is expected to increase ten fold to $ 239 by 2020. In the same period, China’s insurance premium will rise to $863 billion from the present level of $60 billion.
http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/181_1821048,00020008.htm

Retail sales surged 12.9 percent in 2005 over the year before, to 6.7 trillion Yuan ($847 billion). By 2020, industry forecasts say the market could expand to about $2.4 trillion.
http://www.forbes.com/business/energy/feeds/ap/2006/10/17/ap3096453.html

India’s total retail market reached US $230 billion in 2005 and will grow to US$370 billion in 2011
http://sourcewire.com/releases/rel_display.php?relid=27553&hilite=
http://www.etretailbiz.com/feb06/SPECIALfeature.htm

India’s travel and tourism market was valued at US$42 billion in 2005. 340 million people traveled in 2005. The outbound travelers from India grew to 6.2 million in 2005. This was almost twice the number of arrivals witnessed by the country. That means only 3.1 million visited India in the same time.
http://www.euromonitor.com/Travel_and_Tourism_in_India
China received 47.11 million visitors in 2005. This number should not include the vistors from Hongkong, Macau and Taiwan.
http://www.bernama.com.my/bernama/v3/news.php?id=199299
There were 31 million outbound tourists from China in 2005.
http://travel2.nytimes.com/2006/05/17/world/asia/17travel.html
In 2005, inbound tourists reached 120 million (including Chinese from Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan economies).
Overseas tourists contributed over $29.3 billion to the Chinese economy. But their contribution was far outweighed by that of domestic Chinese tourists, who contributed $66.7 billion.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/HC07Cb06.html

In 2004, China’s service exports were US$62 billion versus US$40 billion for India. On the other hand, 60% of China’s service exports were travel and transportation services while in India the figure was 22%.
In 2003, India’s exports of commercial services other than travel, transportation, and finance amounted to US$18.9
billion. The figure for China was US$20.6 billion. In other words, China may already be ahead of India in selling IT
services to the world.
http://www.deloitte.com/dtt/cda/doc/content/US_ChinaIndiaReality_Research.pdf

6. Financial Industry and financial stability
Indians always say that their financial industry is better than China’s. This claim can cheat a lot when Chinese banks were completely state-owned. But today, three of the top four Chinese banks were listed in Hong Kong stock market. When it goes to the truth in market, Indian financial industry looks so pitiful comparing with China’s.
After the IPO of The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, its market value is about US$87 billion, This is almost one and half times of the collective market capitalization of all listed Indian banks - for the 37 listed Indian banks, this is about $ 62.76 billion (Rs 2,86,859 crore). Bank of China's market capitalization is now around $105 billion and that of China Construction Bank $ 99 billion.
India’s ICICI Bank tops the market capitalization chart with $ 13.59 billion (Rs 62,177 crore), followed by the State Bank of India with $11.89 billion (Rs 54,380 crore) and HDFC Bank with $6.29 billion (Rs 28,774 crore). None of the other listed Indian banks has over $5 billion worth of market capitalisation. Punjab National Bank, the fourth bank when it comes to market capitalization, is worth just $3.62 billion. Canara Bank is worth just $2.52 billion.
China’s ICBC has total assets of over $ 812 billion, close to the size of India's GDP! State Bank of India, which accounts for almost one-fifth of total banking assets in India, however, has an asset base of only $84 billion.
http://www.rediff.com/money/2006/oct/07bank.htm

How China’s banks are welcomed in the stock market? The institutional tranche, which makes up 95% of the ICBC offering, attracted more than US$300 billion in orders and is 23 times oversubscribed. In Hong Kong, ICBC's initial public offering (IPO) of H-shares was 76-times oversubscribed with one million retail investors putting in HK$420 billion. This broke the previous record, held by Bank of China, which attracted HK$286 billion (US$36.7 billion) earlier this year. This enables ICBC to price its shares at the upper limit.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/HJ21Cb03.html
After IPO, ICBC's market capitalization jumped to $156.5 billion, trailing the $165.6 billion of the world's fourth-biggest bank, JP Morgan Chase & Co in the world.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=afBgyU3agIzY&refer=home

Budget deficit: 10% of GDP in India versus 2% in China. This could have big impact on financial and economical stability.
http://www.deloitte.com/dtt/cda/doc/content/US_ChinaIndiaReality_Research.pdf

China has almost US$1 trillion forex reserves with total of US$ 297.9 billion external debt
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-10/09/content_5180188.htm
http://www.cctv.com/program/bizchina/20061023/102290.shtml
India has US$165.275 billion forex reserves with US$132.1 billion external debt.
http://www.hindu.com/2006/09/30/stories/2006093001431800.htm
http://www.financialexpress.com/latest_full_story.php?content_id=143426

India has a huge public debt, the ratio of public debt to GDP was 82% in 2005 and still growing fast, which is above the globally recognized alarm level of 60 percent.
http://www.indexmundi.com/india/public_debt.html
China’s public debt was 28.8% of GDP.
http://www.indexmundi.com/china/public_debt.html

7. Software Industry
India is famous for its software and back office service. China's software industry is actually much bigger than that of India even China keeps silent. Chinese companies rely on huge domestic market while India has almost no IT market comparing with the big countries around. China has its own software brands such as KingSoft, Rising(anti-virus), Jiangming (Anti-virus), RedFlag(Working on Linux), WPS ( office software), ufsoft(Enterprise), KINGDEE (Golden Butterfly in Chinese) ( Enterprise), Shanda (Games).
China’s Software industry revenue reached 390 billion RMB (around US$50 billion) in 2005.
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200603/17/eng20060317_251505.html
India’s software industry revenue reached US$29.6 billion in the fiscal year ended in March 2006.
http://blogs.zdnet.com/ITFacts/?p=11050

8. Infrastructure
India has total of 127 million cellular users as of the end of September 2006 and around 50 million landline phone users. See
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2006/10/10/business/AS_FIN_India_Mobile_Phones.php
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communications_in_India
China has total of 437 million mobile users and 368 million fixed-line phone users as of the end of August 2006. Total of 800 million phones are being used in China.
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200609/21/eng20060921_304974.html

India had 27.7 million internet users by year-end 2005, and had only 1.3 million broadband users. China had 111 million internet users through the end 2005, among which 41.2 million were broadband users. See:
http://www.emarketer.com/Article.aspx?1004144
Don’t forget India defines access speed of 128 kbps as broadband even in 2004.
http://www.dot.gov.in/ntp/broadbandpolicy2004.htm

Railroad: In 1949, there were only 21,800 km of railway lines in China, with only 11,000 km opened to traffic. See: http://www.macrochina.com.cn/english/china/resources/20010412000136.shtml
As of the end of 2004, China had 74, 000KM of railroad with much better quality. See: http://english.people.com.cn/200501/26/eng20050126_171976.html
India had total of about 55,000 km Railroad in 1951. That’s much more than China had in 1952. See: http://irfca.org/faq/faq-history4.html .But India has fewer railroads than China now.

China's expressway (at least 4 lanes, speed limit 110KM/hour or 120KM/hour) reaches 42, 000KM at the end of 2005. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expressways_of_China
India has only 4,885 km are central-separated expressways.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expressways_of_India
In 2002 China spent US$128 billion on power and transport infrastructure compared to US$18 billion for India.
A very small share of India’s roads is composed of highways. Of 3.3 million kilometers of roadway, only 195,000 kilometers are highways. China, on the other hand, has roughly 1.4 million kilometers of highway.
Due to insufficient port capacity, the lead time for Indian exports to the US is roughly three to four times greater than Chinese exports.
http://www.deloitte.com/dtt/cda/doc/content/US_ChinaIndiaReality_Research.pdf

Indian industry has to pay double of what Chinese factories pay for power; for ferrying freight by railways, Indian industry pays three times what Chinese factories pay.
http://www.indianexpress.com/story/16111._.html

India has electricity capacity of 130,000 megawatts.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/10/13/business/power.php
At the end of 2006. China will have the power capacity of 590 million kilowatts (590,000 megawatts)
http://english.people.com.cn/200601/03/eng20060103_232522.html
India's power sector, infamous for its distribution sector inefficiencies, shares the top slot in the company of countries such as Nigeria and Nicaragua when it comes to overall transmission and distribution (T&D) loss levels.India's average loss in transmission and distribution (T&D) is about 33 per cent, The T&D lose in China is only 7%.
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2005/12/03/stories/2005120303300900.htm

9. Education
Around 30% of Indian male cannot read newspaper and 52% of female cannot read. that means around 40% of Indians cannot read. See
https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/in.html
Less than 10% of Chinese cannot read (most of are old person and they missed the education opportunity in the old time). See
https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ch.html

Indians are very proud of their software industry. But for the computer science education, China's education quality is much higher than India.

Here is the final list of the famous worldwide IBM ACM contest in 2006. So many Chinese universities were in the top list. You can clearly see Chinese students had much better performance than Indian counterpart.
http://icpc.baylor.edu/past/icpc2006/Finals/Standings.html
Here is another world-wide programmer contest. China and Chinese universities got much better scores than India.
http://www.topcoder.com/stat?c=country_avg_rating (Ranking by country)
http://www.topcoder.com/stat?c=school_avg_rating (ranking by school)
Here is the final list of Google Code Jam 2006, in which, there are 14 Chinese programmers entered the final competition, but you cannot find any Indians in the list.
http://www.google.com/press/annc/codejam06finals.html

Roughly 15% of China’s population aged 18 to 23 is enrolled in higher education compared to 7% in India. 91% of Chinese adults are literate versus 61% in India. Among females, the numbers are 87% and 45% respectively. In China, there are 18 pupils per teacher in secondary schoolsversus 34 in India. Clearly, China has an advantage when it comes to education.
http://www.deloitte.com/dtt/cda/doc/content/US_ChinaIndiaReality_Research.pdf

China’s education also more connected with outside.
South and West Asia is the origin of 194,000 mobile students, with two-thirds coming from India, according to a report from the UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS) titled 'The Global Education Digest 2006'. (That means about 130,000 students from India)
Between 1999 and 2004, the number of mobile students worldwide surged by 41 percent from 1.75 million to 2.5 million, according to the Digest. China sends the greatest number of students abroad - 14 percent of the global total - primarily to the US, Japan and Britain. (That means 350,000 students from China)
http://www.indiaenews.com/business/20060604/10169.htm

140,000 international students came to China for studying in 2005. The number will be doubled in 2020.
http://www.china.org.cn/english/2006/Aug/177200.htm
About 8,000 foreign students are studying in India.
http://www.indianexpress.com/story/12586.html


Today, on every parameter for basic education, China is far ahead of India. In 2000, only 47 per cent of all children managed to complete grade 5 of primary schooling in India, as opposed to 98 per cent of Chinese children. The pupil-teacher ratio for primary education in China is one teacher for every 20 students compared to one teacher for every 40 students in India. According to World Bank estimates, youth male illiteracy in India is 20 per cent. In China it's less than one per cent.
http://www.hinduonnet.com/2006/08/10/stories/2006081005691000.htm
Gross enrollment ratio is estimated to be more or less the same in both countries — but the drop out rate in India is 21 per cent, in China it is 1 per cent.
http://www.indianexpress.com/story/16111._.html

10. Science and technology R&D
China spent 245 billion Yuan (30.6 billion U.S. dollars) on scientific research and development (R&D) in 2005, a rise of 24.6 percent. The investment accounted for 1.34 percent of China's 2005 GDP. R&D funds coming from enterprises stood at 167.4 billion Yuan, making up 68.3 percent of the total investment.
http://english.people.com.cn/200609/14/eng20060914_302806.html
India's total domestic spending on R&D rose an estimated 9.7% to $4.9 billion, or 0.77% of GDP, in the fiscal year ended March 2005.
http://www.plunkettresearch.com/
Based on PPP value of the investment on R&D, China invested US$124.03 billion in 2005 and India did US$36.11 billion in the same year. The numbers will go to US$149.80 billion and US$41.81 billion in 2007.
China’s R&D investment was 12.7% of the total of the world, comparing with 32.7% of US, 12.7% of Japan and 3.7% of India in 2005 based on PPP.
57.6% of the R&D investment in China came from industry, 33.4% from government, 2.7 from abroad, 6.3% from others.
23% of the R&D investment in India came from industry, 74.7% from government, 23% from others.
http://www.battelle.org/news/06/2006report.pdf

Even China’s R&D is not high comparing with the developed countries, but it was 6 times of what India did. The huge investment gap can tell many things. The results are so obvious:
The number of papers that are being published by China and India in high-caliber journals - ones that are accessed by Science Citation Index and Social Science Citation Index, papers originating from China had was almost thrice those from India in 2005.
http://www.indianexpress.com/story/12493.html
In 2005, Indians published only 4 articles in the prestigious Journal of American Chemical Society (JACS) versus just 22 for China, 8 versus 28 in the Physical Review of Letters (PRL) and 2 versus 13 in the Journal of Biological Chemistry (JBC).
While China's score on the Knowledge Index has risen from 3.03 in 1995 to 4.21 today, India's has fallen from 2.76 to 2.61 -- that is, India has slipped even relative to itself!
In terms of innovation, which includes the articles published in scientific journals, apart from the number of R&D personnel and the number of patents, India's score has improved from 3.51 to 3.72 -- China, however, has improved from 3.94 to 4.74, another instance of that country's stupendous progress.
http://inhome.rediff.com/money/2006/jul/17china.htm
On public expenditure on higher education, India lags way behind at $406 per student, just a fraction of countries like China (US $2,728), Brazil (US $3,986) and Malaysia (US $11,790)
http://www.indianexpress.com/story/12640.html

Many Indian and west media say India has advantage in innovation over China. Let’s compare the patents from the two countries. The number of Patent applications of a country pretty much stands for the creative and innovation of this country’s economy. In 2004, over 130,000 patent applications were received in China and China became the No. 4 in the world. India only had 17,466 applications in the same year. China filed 51 applications per million people, while India had only seven filings per million people. India was second to last
http://inhome.rediff.com/money/2006/oct/18forbes.htm
China made 2,452 international patent applications in 2005, a growth of 43.7 percent compared with the previous year. http://china.org.cn/english/2006/Feb/156849.htm
India filed 648 PCT applications in 2005, compared to 723 in 2004 and 764 in 2003. The trend is so obvious.
http://www.hindu.com/2006/02/05/stories/2006020502761300.htm

Indians are always boasting about their high technologies even supercomputer technologies. Let's compare the super computer because Indians are always claiming India is the second IT country in the world.
China's homemade supercomputer listed as No. 14. But the fastest one used in India is No. 105. It was made by IBM. India's homemade one is listed as No. 258. Legend (now Lenovo) built another more powerful one this year. It could be listed as No. 3 or No. 4. More powerful and more supercomputers were used in China than in India. See http://www.top500.org/list/2003/11/
China’s Lenovo is working on 1,000 TFLOPS supercomputer already, and it could be ready before 2010.
http://www.infoworld.com/article/05/07/28/HNlenovosupercomputer_1.html?CLUSTERING
The super computer will have domestic CPUs: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-03/03/content_4254337.htm

Thanks for the large market scale and the recent progress in the technology, China is able and trying to set the international or national technology standards, such as TD-SCDMA, EVD, WAPI, AVS, RFID.
TD-SCDMA was accepted worldwide. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TD-SCDMA
FiberHome is the presenter of ITU-T X.85、X.86和X.87 international telecommunication standard: http://www.fhn.com.cn/fhneng/gyfh.asp?class=About_us
ZTE To Edit Key ITU Standard For Optical Network Technology. http://www.totaltele.com/View.aspx?ID=1226&t=1
China also has its own HDTV, IPTV standards. We know the standard can make more and easier money than the simple production and present the development level of technology in one country. I never hear any international industrial standard come from India.
AVS: http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2005/12/07/afx2376962.html
WAPI: http://english.people.com.cn/200610/13/eng20061013_311470.html

In the telecommunication technology, China is already one of the forerunners in the world.
Huawei along had registered over 8000 patents already. http://www.china.org.cn/english/BAT/142904.htm
Huawei’s global contract sales jumped up 40 pct to US$8.2 billion. http://www.forbes.com/business/feeds/afx/2006/01/15/afx2451344.html
Huawei became the largest supplier in the Optical networking market in the world in 2006.
http://telephonyonline.com/finance/news/huawei_alcatel_optical_090606/

China's IC industry is making great leap in recent years. China uses about 13% of the ICs in the world and will be one of the top IC producers in 2010.
http://en.chinabroadcast.cn/2238/2006-1-28/138@296061.htm

China is to complete its first very-high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (VHTR) by the year 2010. This will be the first such reactor in the world.
http://en.chinabroadcast.cn/2238/2006-2-2/135@296739.htm
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11080908/site/newsweek/
China’s fusion research and achievements,
http://www.hindu.com/2006/09/29/stories/2006092901421800.htm

China today is actually one of the leaders in nano-technology research. 18.3 percent academic publications on nanoscale science and engineering topics were from China in 2004. http://www.smalltimes.com/Articles/Article_Display.cfm?ARTICLE_ID=270358&p=109
China's nanotechnology patent applications rank third in world even before 2003.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/en/doc/2003-10/03/content_269182.htm

In agriculture, China is the place where hybrid-rice came from. Yuan Longping is called the “father of hybrid rice” in the world. http://www.china.org.cn/english/2001/Mar/8452.htm
China developed high-yield "super maize": http://www.checkbiotech.org/root/index.cfm?fuseaction=search&search=China&doc_id=9797&start=16&fullsearch=0China aims for 30 pc increase in "super wheat" output by 2020.
http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus/015200610061211.htm
China has taken the lead among developing countries in the research of genetically modified (GM) plants.
http://english.people.com.cn/200512/05/eng20051205_225772.html

11: International Trade
China’s international trade topped US$1.4 trillion (import: US$660 billion, export: US$762 billion) in 2005, and China became the 3rd largest trader in the world. See: http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/01/11/business/yuan.php
India’s international trade reached US$240.8B (export: US$100.6B, import: US$140.2 billion, import > export) in 2005 (ended in March 2006) with huge trade deficit (40% of its export). http://www.sunmediaonline.com/indiachronicleapril/bilateraltrade.html
From the data above, China does not only can sell a lot more to the outside and also provide a much larger domestic market to the outside. China’s market is not only huge on paper or by mouth. It is real.

12: Living standard
Infant mortality rate: China 2.312%, India 5.463%
Life expectancy at birth: China 72.58 years, India 64.71 years
(From CIA facts books)
People living with HIV/AIDS: China 0.64 million, India 5.7 million (The world No. 1 in 2005)
http://www.unaids.org/en/HIV_data/2006GlobalReport/default.asp

46% of general population in Bombay carries an active sexually transmitted disease (the greatest risk factor for HIV spread). Do you believe it? See: http://www.globalchange.com/indi.htm

Indian PC sales hit 4.6 million in 2005 (ended in March 2006) in the so-called the second IT superpower. See: http://www.boston.com/
About 20 million of PCs were sold in China in 2005 (ended in December 2005). China is actually the No. 2 PC market in the world, only after US. See: http://www.vnunet.com/vnunet/news/2150574/china-pc-sales-hit-billion-2005

Only 32% of Indian families have TV. See:
China's number is 94% which is was almost as high as in the developed countries. India will be 2/3 of this number at the end of decade.

India’s health system is worse than neighboring Pakistan and Bangladesh.
http://www.business-standard.com/common/storypage.php?autono=262521&leftnm=3&subLeft=0&chkFlg=
The proportion of children underweight in India is 47.5% higher than the proportion of children underweight in Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole.
http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=143751
According to UNICEF, India in fact has 57 million children suffering from malnutrition compared to only seven million in China.
In China, underweight prevalence in children under five was reduced by more than half from 19 per cent in 1990 to just under seven per cent in 2005. The under-five mortality rate also sharply dropped from 49 per 1000 live births in 1990 to 31 in 2004.
http://www.hinduonnet.com/2006/08/10/stories/2006081005691000.htm
India ranks 93 among 116 developing countries in the global hunger index. India’s score on the index for 2003, the latest year for which data is available, was 25.73, worse than Sudan at 27.20 but better than Burkina Faso (25.80). The index, comprising three indices - child malnutrition, child mortality and estimates of the proportion of people who are calorie deficient - ranks countries on a 100-point scale, with 0 being the best and 100 being the worst.
nearly 50 percent of the world’s hungry live in India. Around 35 percent of India’s population - 350 million - is considered food-insecure, consuming less than 80 percent of minimum energy requirements.
http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?NewsID=1058371

The long list of Chinese medal winners at Sydney 2000 Olympic Games: See: http://www.sportorganizer.com/2000sydney/2000sydney16.htm
Let's congratulate to the only one Indian winner in 2000: See: http://www.sportorganizer.com/2000sydney/2000sydney34.htm
2004 Olympics in Athens, Please look for China from the top of the list and India from the bottom:
http://www.athens2004.com/en/OlympicMedals/medals

13. Political system
Even Indians claim India is a democratic country. But its corruption is worse than China. see
http://www.international.ucla.edu/article.asp?parentid=5299 (The research result for 2003, Corruption Perception Index)
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0781359.html (The research result for 2006, Corruption Perception Index)
Another research report said India's corruption is much worse than China too: http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/topstories/story/0,4386,238369,00.html
Do you believe Democracy works in India?

Human Rights in India? See here: 3000 farmers committed suicide in a 11million farming area in one year. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/3855517.stm
Suicide rate for women is as high as 148 per 100,000, and 58 per 100,000 for men in Tamil Nadu. http://www.rediff.com/news/2004/apr/15spec.htm
At least 5% of Mumbai's people live on the roads, and 2% are simply nomads. Another 2.5 million people live in dilapidated buildings which have been officially tagged as 'dangerous'. See the report: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/4222525.stm
Over 12 per cent of disabled women in Orissa have been raped and 25 per cent of those mentally challenged have been sexually assaulted in the state. Isn't that horrible? See: http://www.expressindia.com/fullstory.php?newsid=42099

Twelve protestors killed in police shooting in January, 2006
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2006/jan2006/oris-j17.shtml
Four killed in protests in India's Gujarat state in May, 2006
http://news.monstersandcritics.com/southasia/article_1159863.php
Four were killed in the Violence over Indian star's death in April, 2006
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/4905880.stm

The ill-treated Indians have to take their weapons to stand up against Indian government
http://www.guardian.co.uk/india/story/0,,1770612,00.html
http://ottsun.canoe.ca/News/National/2006/06/02/1611463.html
Maoist rebels spread across rural India.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0822/p06s01-wosc.html

The religious conflicts, fighting happens in India over and over again. You can see how divided India is as a country.
http://edition.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/asiapcf/south/12/06/ayodhya.background/

Don’t forget the caste system in India and 160 million Untouchables are living in India.
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/asia/article1868080.ece

In India, :At least 10,000 people, most of them civilians, have died in fighting between government forces and separatists since 1979."
http://www.localnewswatch.com/jordanfalls/stories/index.php?action=fullnews&id=40638

More than 50 were killed in India's Independence movement
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/01/06/ap/world/mainD8MFTQF03.shtml

It is well known that there is no space for the discrimination against other domestic ethnic groups In China. Women are enjoying the equal rights. Chinese minorities often have more rights or privileges than Han people.

To artificially make Kolkata "shining", gov "bought from farmers for 10,000 to Rs 12,000 per acre and sold to builders for Rs 300,000 to Rs 400,000 per acre ". This can happen in a large city in India.
http://specials.rediff.com/election/2006/apr/27sld2.htm
To make Mumbai as shining as Shanghai, so many slum residents losted their place to live in one day. Around 60% of Mumbai residents are living in slums.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/printFriendly/0,,1-3-1487253,00.html
60% poor people cannot beat 40% rich people in making policies in a democracy country. If you read the comments after the news, few think about the poor. See the comments: http://www.expressindia.com/fullstory.php?newsid=40309
Also please see the pitiful poor India after their slums were destroyed by Indian government: http://news.bbc.co.uk/

These two articles were written by the same foreign visitor (sounds like a biz man) after he visited both India and China in the same year (2000).
His view about India: http://berclo.net/page00/00en-impressions-india.html
His impression about China: http://berclo.net/page00/00en-impressions-china.html
He also described so-called Indian democracy in this article: http://berclo.net/page00/00en-india-1.html
"India is said to be the world's largest democracy. There is no dispute about its size, one billion is large, but I don't think that a country whose major priorities in the last 50 years have favored a small minority at the expense of the majority can be called "a democracy". "

Socialism or capitalism both are economical models and both can push economy ahead.
Socialism is not associated with slow development in history. USSR was converted into a modern economy in a short time in its socialism era. Germany was also developing very fast before ww2 even the government controlled economy tightly.
China's economy growth was also around 7% every year before the reform even China’s more attention was put on national security. 7% growth can not be thought as slow development even today, let alone China was under embargo.
India's problem was not because of social system. It was largely because the government did not have strategy and had no ability to implement its policy if it has some. That's why India sometimes has good policies, such as education, health care...., but the results are poor.
Today, China's system has both flexibility in policy and ability to implement changes. This can allow us to keep the good policies and makes changes on bad decisions quickly. Good example is China’s education system. Our old education system worked very well at low cost. China's illiterate rate dropped to less than 15% even before the reform when China was much poorer. But we trusted market economy too much and we commercialized many parts of the system. After years, it is now proven a disaster and government got a lot of complains. Government input into the system decreased percentage-wise (not by absolute value). a lot of burden was shifted to families. As a country, the total investment into the education system increased a lot, but families’ burden increased a lot faster, especially for the poorer family.
Now we are making changes again. The totally free compulsory education will be provided before 2007 nationwide. China decided to make changes in 2005, but now many provinces implemented the new policy already. We are very confident that the new policy will be pushed to all the country in time.
China even CCP does not take care of any ideology any more. As long as we think some new policy is good for China, we can try it and then expanded all over the country quickly if the test proves it works.

In Asia, at least in East Asia, countries or economies can only get rich under the dictatorship not democracy. S Korea, Singapore, Taiwan area and Hong Kong, even Japan. There was no exception.
Japan was de facto one party government arranged by US until recent years the rival party could win. S Korea was completely a dictatorship with the support from US before 1990s. Taiwan did not have real election until 2000 (but it is real unfortunate for Chinese on the island. The election is proven to be disaster. Look at what is happening in Taiwan). Singapore is a dictatorship controlled by Lee family even today. There was no any election in Hong Kong until it was returned to China in 1997.
On the contrary, Philippines were some sort of rich. It was even considered as luck if a Taiwan people could find a job there in 1960s. Philippines has the democratic government that is almost a copy if US's. But now it is almost the poorest country in SE Asia. Taiwan’s fast development happened under the dictatorship. Its economy has been stagnant for almost 10 years since election happened on the island.
From both history and today’s truth, democracy does not translate into economical development as many people take for granted. You should understand why Goldman asked India government to following China’s political model.
http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=142344

14. Economical History
Data show that China developed much faster than India even before China's reform. India was much better than China before the Chinese Communist Party took power. In 1950, India’s GDP per capita was almost 1.5 times of China’s. But China's GDP caught up India in 70s last century. Now China’s GDP per capita is almost 2.5 times of India’s
GDP Per capita ( I believe it is based on PPP)
Country...1820....1870....1913....1950....1973...1998…2003
China.......600......530......552......439......839....3,117…4392
India........533......533......673......619......853....1,746…2160
http://www.ggdc.net/Maddison/Historical_Statistics/horizontal-file_2006.xls

This is only the economical data. China was doing much better than India in social development before the reform, such as education, health service, scientific R&D, …. These laid down a very solid foundation for China’s economical reform that happened in late 1970s. Many people say India lags behind China because of its late economical reform. It is not true in fact. The truth is: China did better than India before the reform and is continuing to do better than India after the reform.

15. Some more links
India asks how its economy can catch up with China's
http://www.forbes.com/home_europe/newswire/2003/11/19/rtr1154472.html
India Versus China-- Was written by some Indians
http://www.samachar.com/tech/archives/techtalk51.html
Can India Catch-Up With China? -- Was written by some Indians
http://www.indiadefence.com/ind-china.htm
The Population Bomb that can devastate India, actually it is a comparison between India and China
http://www.india-watch.com/4.htm
Can India catch up with China?
http://www.flonnet.com/fl1715/17150480.htm
Can India Overtake China? -- The famous article saying India will overtake China
http://www.alternatives.ca/article1053.html

16. Conclusion
The above links come from various resources. I collect these data to show the facts to people because I have heard too much from Indian high rank officials and Indian and western media that say: India is better than China, India has more potential than China, India is more innovative than China, India is better in quality and China is better in quantity… All of these claims are basing on no facts, at least today.

India’s economy is doing well in recent 3 or 4 years and the trend could continue for some time. I wish Indian people can enjoy their good life and make progress.

China has been high economical growth since 1949 even China had some setback during the Great Leap during 1959-1961 and the early stage of the Cultural Revolution during 1966-1970. The Cultural Revolution lasted for 10 years from 1966-1976, but China’s economy recovered and was in growth path after 1970.

In the past about 60 years, India’s economy was caught up by China and was put behind by China. Today, China’s economy is still growing at more than 10% pace, India, around 8%. These are simple facts.

Undoubtedly, China is a developing country with population of 1.3 billion. It has a lot of issues in the past, in today and in the future. I don’t deny that.

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21 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ah. I just saw the truth. This can explain why what I saw in India is too different from China.

2:26 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thank you for your hardwork in collecting the information. It is very helpful. Facts/numbers always speak louder.

10:26 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good job, Thanks!

5:31 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

A very impressive report! I must compliment your ability to do good research. However I have few points to make. Kindly ponder on them carefully!

1. Few years back in 1999-2000, no one could even dare to think of comparing China and India, yet today in 2006 it is happening! Your report which goes in great detail to compare China and India....ironically just proves that!

2. We all agree that China is FAR ahead than India. China has undoubtedly achieved the kind of economic success in such a short time which no other country has been able to do. But among the developing countries (BRIC), why is it that only India is being pitted against China for comparison? That is 'coz only India has the strength and resilience to compete with the Chinese.

3. The very fact that India and China are being compared proves that they are in a undeclared race (competition) I dunno mind calling China - "The Hare" and India as - "The Tortoise" in this race..

4. People like you who write such mind-blowing and accurate blogs/reports are great motivators constantly reminding us the Indians on how much we have yet to catch up with China! It serves as a very good motivational tool. Thank you for the inspiration.

Now I better get back to work...we have a lot to catch up on already!!!

5:37 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Your report is anti-India, the reason I say that is I don't see one single negative point about China. while I agree China is doing much better than India today, there must have been at least one negative point about China. Obviously you are too biased towards China !

9:46 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Excellent Job

3:19 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

What are your credentials?

2:13 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

India has between 25% to 125% (on average 50%) of everything that China has.

12:21 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

GDP as Percentage of World (2000 to 2050)
===========================================
World 100
Africa 16 (5 to 25)
China 16 (8 to 20)
India 10 (3 to 20)
European Union 10 (4 to 20)
USA 9 (5 to 20)
Asean 8 (4 to 15)
Middle East 5 (4 to 10)
Brazil 5 (3 to 7)
Russia 5 (2 to 13)
All Other 16 (5 to 25)

Note : These estimates take into account small to medium terrotorial and population changes.

12:28 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

India GDP (2000 to 2025)
==========================
Population 15% to 17%
Land 2% to 10%
Food Production 8% to 15%
Electricity 4% to 15%
Tech 4% to 15% (Cell Phones, Computers, TV, VCR, etc)
Roads 5% to 15% (Roads, Waterways, Railroads, etc)
———————————————————
Expected GDP 9% of world economy (6% to 15%)


China GDP (2000 to 2025)
==========================
Population 18% to 22%
Land 5% to 15%
Food Production 5% to 20%
Electricity 5% to 20%
Tech 5% to 20% (Cell Phones, Computers, TV, VCR, etc)
Roads 5% to 20% (Roads, Waterways, Railroads, etc)
———————————————————
Expected GDP 15% of world economy (7% to 20%)

1:21 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The reasons why India in recent years has been compared with China are as follows (in this order):

1. First and foremost, both countries have over one billion people. There are only 2 countries who can claim this honor on the entire planet;
2. Both are Asian countries;
3. India is classified as a democracy with elected leaders while China has a totalitarian government;
4. China has experienced high economical growth in the last 30 years while India’s economy has seen high growth in the past 4-6 years, largely led by the computer software sector.
5. Both countries have been talked up by the western media as the potential candidates to be the next superpowers.
6. It is highly debatable which country really has the true potential and which country is simply hyped up by the media fueled by the wishful thinking of the country’s social elites.

2:43 PM  
Anonymous wangxiang yu said...

I am a Chinese. But i dont like this kind of Comparision article. If it is just for a reference, it is not a problem to gather all the information mentioned in this article. But if the writer has any kind of thoughts that prove China is better than India, i think the writer and this article is ridiculors. And any indian people read this article, plz dont feel any uncomfortable, cause you dont need to spend time on it. My fellow Chinese, dont forget what we looked like 30 years ago, and dont forget our normal people's life is still not good enough, although it has already Changed a lot. India and China has different history and culture, and choose different way of development. it doesnt make any sense to compare with our neighour, we need to respect them, cause india people are very kind and good, and they are also working hard. As a oversea working Chinese, i felt that respecting each other and understanding each other are more important than this kind of unmeaningful comparision. I believe that India will also make a miracle and sucess in the development of their own country. And as a Chinese, i would like to give my best wishes to India people.
The Chinse who like comparing, plz go to India, and contact with india people, to get to know their lives and make friends with our neighbour. Let is focus on our lives with a globle view, and devote yourself to the only one time journey on this planet. Cherish your time and life. Forget the unmeaningful comparision, focus on future and what you want to do. you cannt boast yourself on the striving of our predecessor.
And my fellow Chinese, never forget the good Chinses saying: a good neighbour helps you more than a relative far away.
If anyone that want to compare, plz focus on how to learn the advantages and virtues from others.

5:43 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good data. But too much biased towards China. You must be working for one of those Chinese propaganda ministries. BTW, do you have any comparison between India and China on how much money spent on state sponsored "propaganda and misinformation" ?

6:22 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The fact is, India is far behind China in economic wealth creation. I do not think anyone would disagree to that. There are a lot of other things in which India is probably better than China( and so is probably China with respect to anyother nation including US.) which are conveniently ignored. Thats ok, I am sure the author has very valuable motivations for wasting time on making this list. But I think the author's conclusion about the quality of a country's education system from the finalist list on IBM ACM Contest or Google Code Jam is ridiculous. Either the author is ignorant to make such conclusions or he/she is cleverly disseminating misinformation. (Extending that logic, for example an American or German could conclude Chinese people $tupid and are fit to make only toys for Walmart by looking at the Nobel price winners !!)

6:33 PM  
Anonymous Anoop said...

I am an Indian and I have known people from my company (who are also Indians) who have visited China and have told me that comparing India and China is just ridiculuous. China is way ahead of us and I believe so too..

But that doesn't mean that India cannot make it. If China can do it, India can too. And whatever it is I do believe in the power of democracy and I am sure in the long run, it is democracy that is going to do it for India.

I think there is enough space for both countries in this world. After all these are the only two countries still in contention for world dominance even after thousands of years...

6:36 AM  
Anonymous Rich People said...

World of Tomorrow. There have always been rich and poor people. Some things never change...

http://img250.imageshack.us/my.php?image=richaveragepoorcs3.png

12:30 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You missed one comparison: Chinese are on "LEASH", Indians are not. Chinese dont know what freedom is, yet. India's growth is slow and steady, while China's is hasty. China destroys villages and displaces millions of farmers turning them to Industrial workers, all in the name of growth. You reported so many human right's problems in India. You got so many of them because, unlike China, India doesn't control media.
Enough said, stop these stupid meaningless propaganda. BTW, how much did your state pay you?

12:23 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

As a chinese canadian, I like seeing those competitions on coding. University of Waterloo, University of Toronto, University of Alberta and if I missed anybody ranked quite high.

Not bad for a small country.

Comparisons between India and China shouldn't anger anybody. I have no doubt that India is going to come into its own. The only real difference is in terms of timeframe. These are two very different countries and I'm sure each will get it done in their own way.

I do like the research and references. It does make it easier to find investments in either country. That is what it is all about.

11:32 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thank you for your hard work.
As a Chinese, I respect Indians. Sooner or later, we, Chinese and Indians, will become wealthy and healthy countries in this planet. Cheers for the every and very progress China and India have made. May Sino-india friendship lasts for ever!

3:02 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

China and India are so different from each other that economic and social data comparison does conceal deeper cultural, historical and political aspects. The different development models and people's attitudes reflect these aspects, regarding which it's difficult to tell who is better.

But here's one thing i feel necessary to point out. Similar comparison in China will probably arouse comments stressing that chinese can do no worse than any other people, while most of the comments here boast india's democracy and stress on india's other advantages over china. Maybe that's the difference.

12:40 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am worried about the grassroot comparison like this. Think about it, who started comparing two countries? The western media. They put India in a rivalry side of China in stupid comparisons like this, which drew more and more eyeballs and created frictions.

The west world is good at this. Look at Africa, look at Taiwan and China mainland, look at Isreal and Palestine...It was the West (esp US and UK) who keep making troubles.

2 years ago, I don't even think there can be such arguments between China and India, but now, they are quite popular across the internet. Please stop this. It's not going to a correct direction.

12:55 AM  

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